When leadership narrows and a few dominant names drive the gains, it's rarely a sign of strength. Rallies built on concentration often reflect habit, not conviction. Growth regimes can persist longer than expected, but stretched valuations and thinning breadth tend to signal exhaustion, not renewal. What looks like resilience is often just reluctance to let go, hiding a slow erosion of conviction among those still clinging to the dominant narrative.
As we've said before, the decline of US large-cap growth dominance will not unfold with a cinematic bang. It will unwind gradually, as portfolios built on overconfidence and backward-looking narratives quietly fail to meet their missions. The truth is, far too many investors view large-cap growth as essential—so essential, in fact, that they’ve stopped questioning whether it still offers value or strategic relevance. The real challenge isn’t price, but belief.
We’re witnessing a form of passive consensus that feels less like strategy and more like storytelling-by-default. Market participants aren’t making decisions, simply repeating them. It’s clone-like behavior, where portfolios mirror one another from collective inertia, not independent convergent thought.
It would be easier if a crash were coming. That would be obvious. Instead, what we’re seeing is more insidious: a creeping underperformance by the strategies everyone believes in most. So far in 2025, most Crewcial clients remain on pace to meet their long-term, mission-aligned annual goals; however, traditional benchmarks (e.g., a S&P 500 / Bloomberg Agg blend) are slowly proving less and less effective as a reliable path to that same objective. The gap may be modest, and past returns may still paper over the cracks, but 2025 is a warning, and the message is simple: the math may still look fine, but the engine underneath is starting to sputter.
Unfortunately, few are listening.
In June, I’ll be in Cairo, meeting with a dozen companies alongside one of our Crewcial-approved managers. Their strategy, up more than 15% YTD, is built on businesses with real cash flow, little to no leverage, and dividend yields north of 10%. The portfolio trades at a ~30% free-cash-flow yield. Not bad for “emerging markets,” especially when juxtaposed against the richly valued stagnation of US mega caps.
Of course, most investors won’t even consider it. Why? Because it's Africa. Political risk, currency volatility, governance concerns, etc. All valid issues. But let’s be honest: the real risk isn’t economic, it’s reputational.
No one wants to be the first to look wrong, even if the long-term math is compelling.
This is the central paradox we face as advisors to nonprofit institutions. The same reluctance that keeps investors away from Africa keeps them locked into portfolios filled with yesterday’s winners. To allocate outside the narrative, to not look like everyone else, is perceived as dangerous. But the danger is an illusion. The real risk is conformity.
Our clients, endowments, foundations, and mission-driven families, don’t operate with shot clocks, nor should their portfolios. Still, there’s constant pressure to perform in the short term, to appease emotional or reputational anxieties that rarely have financial relevance. The temptation to conform, to mimic, to “clone” a benchmark or a peer portfolio is everywhere.
Our strategy will never promise certainty, but unlike the valuation-insensitive, index-centric portfolios that are so prevalent today, ours at least has a chance of working. A real one. A good one.
Let me be blunt: capital markets cannot deliver 8–9%+ returns for everyone. It’s mathematically impossible. And yet, nearly every advisor seems to act as if this isn’t the case, as if a riskless return is still available if you just squint at the right slide deck. The idea that everyone can be above average, that everyone can have a participation trophy, is the true fairytale.
Which brings me to a quote I recently stumbled across:
"We live in a world of people behaving like clones, all trying to look, sound and be the same... too busy comparing themselves to each other on tiny screens to see the bigger picture." Alice Feeney, Beautiful Ugly
This line isn’t about investing, but its resonance is hard to miss.
Our world is increasingly one of sameness: same exposures, same advice, same benchmarks, same stories. But that sameness is fragile. Eventually, the pendulum will swing. And when it does, the portfolios that were built with discipline, a global perspective, and a willingness to look different will stand out, not just in basis points, but in real-world impact.
The hard part now is staying the course. The reward later will be worth it.