3 min read

Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 4 of 4

Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 4 of 4

In our most recent commentary on crisis negotiation and its application within financial consulting, we explored the parallels between these two domains. In this first of four subsequent series we demonstrate how these principles are applied in practice. Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 of this series are available in both text and audio. 

 

CRISIS ACTORS: Crewcial Investment Team; Approved Emerging Markets Manager

ISSUE: Investing through a geopolitical crisis

GOAL: Achieving favorable downside protection

 

ASSESSMENT

Starting in the first quarter of 2022, one of our approved emerging-markets managers faced a multi-faceted drawdown, simultaneously caused by a growth-to-value investment style rotation and a sizable investment in a company based in an emerging economy impaired by geopolitical issues. This led to a dual shock that created an unprecedented performance drawdown.

At the onset of the crisis, the firm started with an assessment of the overall situation, particularly in terms of the emerging economy investment, to gain a thorough understanding of how the geopolitical risk could affect business fundamentals, as well as the firm’s ability to trade the position; sanctions against the country were affecting all industries and companies, even those that had no link to the government (as was the case for this business). The manager was on the board of the company, allowing it first-hand insight into business operations—it was able to leverage this board seat to help strategically mitigate the damage of any geopolitical events affecting the company. It also leveraged its Washington, DC, contacts to better understand how these events were unfolding, to try to isolate the investment from what was happening on a macro level.

COMMUNICATION & ACTIVE LISTENING

The manager compiled this information in an FAQ document that it released to its LPs, then immediately set up an investor call to communicate its findings, address LP concerns, share its strategy to pull out of this drawdown, and discuss solutions that would allow it to do well by its investors, especially for newer ones that had entered the partnership at the peak of the drawdown. After fielding and weighing all concerns and feasible options, the manager decided to side-pocket the investment to isolate it from the overall portfolio, offering LPs the chance to either reduce, maintain, or increase the investment to accommodate their various preferences. Furthermore, the manager created a new share class with a downward revision to its incentive fee to better align with its investors.

BUILDING TRUST

Prior to this drawdown, the manager had been consistent in writing quarterly investment letters as its primary means of client communication, which is standard practice across investment managers and already provided key information; it since added semi-annual investor calls, in which the partners discuss the firm and portfolio to provide greater transparency into names of interest (or concern) and answer specific client questions, improving overall communication. Fast forward two years and the manager has maintained this structure, underscoring its consistency and reliability while strengthening its rapport with clients, who are now able to obtain more immediate and up- to-date information through the semi-annual calls relative to the pre-crisis arrangement.

INFLUENCING AND PERSUASION

In its initial calls, the manager reflected on lessons learned from this investment; it had underestimated the degree to which the country in question would be sanctioned—these sanctions themselves were unprecedented, driving stock prices down for all domestic companies; in retrospect, the manager should have exited the position in the early stages of rising political tension. Furthermore, it decided to no longer make investments in countries where geopolitical risk can materially affect the investment thesis, regardless of the strength of the underlying business fundamentals. These lessons have in turn strengthened its overall risk-management process while cultivating more open and honest client relationships. An expectation and demonstration of such trust and honestly is key to building and maintaining conviction among managers and their investors.

RESOLUTION

Performance has since improved following the drawdown period and the forward-looking IRRs are now notably compelling. Regarding the investment in question, the manager decided to hold it after renewed research to avoiding a ‘panic-selling’ situation during heightened macroeconomic tensions; this investment ended up being one of the strongest contributors to performance the following year, after which the manager reduced it to less than 1% of NAV, demonstrating both its patience and continued discipline.

DEBRIEFING AND EVALUATION

The manager exhibited investment competence and instilled confidence through its deep due diligence, open communication, and patience in the face of powerful volatility, as well as the ability to act fast when needed— all of which serves as the backbone of long-term performance. Emerging markets are often shunned by mainstream investors for various reasons, and it takes significant research, conviction, and even bravery to venture into what can be considered obscure territories. But with the right balance of patience and agility, the rewards for this type of risk-taking can be immense.

 

Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 3 of 4

5 min read

Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 3 of 4

In our most recent commentary on crisis negotiation and its application within financial consulting, we explored the parallels between these two...

Read More
Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 2 of 4

6 min read

Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 2 of 4

In our most recent commentary on crisis negotiation and its application within financial consulting, we explored the parallels between these two...

Read More
Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 1 of 4

5 min read

Crisis Negotiation Series | Part 1 of 4

In our most recent commentary on crisis negotiation and its application within financial consulting, we explored the parallels between these two...

Read More