The Conviction Playbook: A Framework for Allocating Through Uncertainty

In today’s fast-moving markets—marked by geopolitical tension, valuation extremes, and inconsistent liquidity—successful investment decision-making requires more than technical skill. It demands conviction and a discipline underpinned by the fundamental laws of finance. The Conviction Playbook brings together senior investment leaders at Crewcial Partners—Regina Cho, Rita Benkirane, and Michelle Zhang—to explore how an approach based on qualitative research, diversity of thought, and disciplined portfolio construction can enable better, more sustainable long-term outcomes for institutional investors.

Key Takeaways and Insights

Conviction is a Filter, Not a Feeling

Conviction is hard-coded into Crewcial’s “best ideas” approach. With more than 500 manager meetings annually and only a handful approved, selectivity is not just a feature, it’s the foundation.

“We operate with a best-ideas approach and really just invest in managers that we have the highest conviction in; to put that in numbers, we take approximately 500 intro meetings a year and only approve a handful. So, needless to say, our process is very selective and we have quite a high bar for what we look for.” – Rita Benkirane

This bar is especially powerful in drawdown-prone or sideways markets, where a sprawling list of names is more liability than strength.

“Typically, in periods of market drawdowns or uncertainty as we're kind of facing today, I think it really allows us to have that position of leaning in appropriately, which is generally hard to do if you have a list that's 100-plus names.” – Regina Cho

Macro Uncertainty Doesn’t Disrupt the Process—It Sharpens It

Markets today are noisy: distorted by macro headwinds, concentrated in a handful of tech names, and long overdue for mean reversion. Yet amid uncertainty lies an opportunity for allocators who stay anchored.

“My biggest concerns come from two perspectives. The first one is macro-related, all the geopolitical issues, especially because I cover the non-US markets; I know how these geopolitical issues can affect the local markets. And also the Trump 2.0 policy-related issues, especially tariffs.” – Michelle Zhang

While valuation gaps across regions and factors have persisted, Crewcial’s conviction-led model allows it to lean into areas that others are avoiding.

“Now, Mag 7 accounts for 32% of the S&P 500 Index and almost 20% of the MSCI AC World Index... And everyone seems to believe the turning point is coming. But in past years, the expensive ones were just getting more and more expensive, and cheaper ones were getting cheaper and cheaper.” – Michelle Zhang

Volatility Reveals Process—and People

In times of stress, manager behavior becomes especially telling. Do they lean in with clarity, or retreat in panic?

“When managers are challenged with difficult investment conditions, this definitely gives us a firsthand view into their psyche and behavior, and how they're really reacting to all the volatility. I think that it can be very telling about their risk-taking ability.” – Rita Benkirane

This isn’t about blindly holding course. It’s about discerning who has true “ice in their veins”—a calm commitment to process, even when uncomfortable.

“Some managers behaved in a panicked manner and made massive rotations. That means they didn't stay disciplined.” – Michelle Zhang

“We like to mention, and talk a lot within our team about, the concept of ‘ice in their veins’... At the end of the day, what they're focused on is making the best rational decisions for their portfolios and their LPs, and really focusing on the long term.” – Rita Benkirane

True Skill Isn’t Measured by One-Year Returns

Conviction also shows up in how teams interpret drawdowns—not as disqualifiers, but as data points. The team places equal weight on process fidelity and judgment under pressure.

“We have a manager that lost 40% during 2020, and at that time, some of our clients showed concern and were disappointed. But after we talked to that manager, we believed that everything was under control... And the next year, the portfolio bounced back by over 100%.” – Michelle Zhang

Understanding why a position is underperforming, and whether the thesis remains intact, is a core differentiator in Crewcial’s approach to diligence.

“Those highly skilled, highly capable managers tend to do very deep bottom-up research. They know the markets very well. They know their investment targets better than anyone else. They even know those companies better than the management.” – Michelle Zhang

Diversity is a Decision-Making Advantage

Diversity at Crewcial isn’t about optics, it’s about sharpening judgment, eliminating blind spots, and improving underwriting through cognitive contrast.

“People with diverse background tend to bring in different thinking from all aspects, which can help to eliminate or at least mitigate bias. I personally think bias is the number one reason for poor decisions.” – Michelle Zhang

The same ethos is applied to manager selection, particularly with emerging talent and differentiated perspectives.

“We remain focused on managers that develop that variant perspective... For that, they need to be surrounded by individuals that have different backgrounds, coming from different cultural experiences and socioeconomic circumstances, that really have led them to think differently.” – Rita Benkirane

“Even the most junior person can bring the best idea... just because you've been here for, let's say, 14 years (like myself), that doesn't mean you drive all the future idea generation.” – Regina Cho

ESG, Sourcing, and Process—Built to Evolve

While the team’s philosophy remains fixed, its diligence process has evolved meaningfully over the past decade-plus, especially in ESG integration and sourcing capabilities.

“Our core principles have remained consistent throughout the years. That's our investment philosophy and we're sticking to it; we're not deviating from it. But in terms of our process, there's definitely been some evolutions and improvements… [ESG factors] have become an integral role into our approach to due diligence. There's a strong correlation between sustainable investing and financial performance.” – Rita Benkirane

“We are more open to regional or country-specific managers because we believe these managers can be local experts and uncover many hidden gems.” – Michelle Zhang

Themes Are Exciting, but Only When Paired with Discipline

From AI to climate to biotech, secular trends are fertile ground, but only for managers who avoid hype and stay anchored in process.

“AI has been a buzzword for the past couple of years and it's definitely the hottest topic today... I can see AI does improve efficiency. So the economic value is there… The potential is actually huge, so we will keep monitoring the trend and try to find opportunities.” – Michelle Zhang

“Climate change... although it's quite consensus, because everyone agrees that it's pretty important... In the private markets, obviously, there are new companies and solutions being created to tackle these issues, while in the public markets, managers are supporting the transition to cleaner energy… This is something that's really important for us and that we're backing meaningfully.” – Rita Benkirane

“Biotech was interesting a decade ago and it's actually coming back as even more interesting and possibly even more lucrative today.” – Regina Cho

The Mindset Matters as Much as the Model

The most successful investors don’t just think better, they behave better. They stay grounded in philosophy, resist FOMO, and prioritize long-term consistency over short-term performance.

“Stay focused is very important. And I would add staying humble and hungry... [the best managers] tend to keep learning and compounding their knowledge. They are also ambitious— I don't mean to make money or gather assets, but to be world-class investors.” – Michelle Zhang

“What they should focus on is really what they do best and not deviating from that, because we've seen firsthand that managers really get burned when they try to steer away from their strategy.” – Rita Benkirane

“I do appreciate that we've never, or I wouldn't say never, but we haven't done too many things out of FOMO. And I think that's really hard to do as a team, as individuals.” – Regina Cho

Conviction, when backed by rigorous qualitative diligence and behavioral consistency, is not a static trait, it’s a strategic differentiator. For Crewcial, the best investment decisions are made not in reaction to volatility, but in response to it, with patience, perspective, and a long arc of discipline.